Why do we trust markets more than people?

Why Trust a Market Over a Neighbor? The Paradox of Faith in Systems vs. Humanity

In Kenya’s bustling Nairobi, a farmer in Kibera slum sells maize via M-Pesa while refusing loans from her own brother. In Nigeria, crypto traders bet millions on volatile stablecoins but dismiss local banks as “thieves.” Across Africa and beyond, a silent revolution is unfolding: trust is migrating from people to markets. But why?

The answer lies in a cocktail of systemic failures, algorithmic allure, and the seductive promise of efficiency—even when markets falter. From Kenya’s mobile money boom to the global rise of AI-driven trading, humanity is placing its bets on cold, hard systems over warm, flawed humans. The consequences are transformative, unequal, and often perilous.

1. Kenya’s Mobile Money Miracle: When Markets Fill Governance Gaps

Kenya’s M-Pesa, launched in 2007, is now a $1.2 trillion annual transaction behemoth, used by 80% of adults (Central Bank of Kenya, 2023). Its success stems from distrust in human institutions. Only 22% of Kenyans trust banks to safeguard savings (GeoPoll, 2023), while 73% believe politicians embezzle funds (Transparency International, 2022). M-Pesa’s algorithm-driven transparency—instant notifications, traceable transactions—offered refuge.

But this trust is double-edged. During Kenya’s 2022 election, AI-generated disinformation flooded WhatsApp, yet users blamed politicians, not Meta’s systems. Similarly, when Safaricom’s servers crashed in 2023, freezing $150 million in transactions for hours, Kenyans protested the government’s “lack of backup plans,” not the company’s宕机. Markets, it seems, get the benefit of the doubt; people do not.

2. Cryptocurrency in Nigeria: Faith in Code Over Corrupt Leaders

Nigeria’s crypto adoption rate is the highest in Africa (32%, Chainalysis, 2023), despite a 2021 central bank ban. Why? The naira’s 45% inflation rate in 2023 and rampant graft—$582 billion stolen since 1960 (EFCC, 2023)—made decentralized systems a lifeline. Platforms like Binance promise “governance by math,” appealing to a generation burned by human fraud.

Yet crypto’s pitfalls mirror the systems it replaces. In 2023, Nigerian traders lost $26 million to phishing scams and rug pulls (BitcoinKE), while algorithmic stablecoins like USDC depegged during Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. Trust in markets persists, but the risks are outsourced to faceless code.

3. South Africa’s Energy Crisis: Privatizing Power, Eroding Community

Load-shedding—planned blackouts—plagued South Africa for 200 days in 2023, costing 13billion(Eskom).Desperatecitizensturnedtoprivatesolarfirms,withinstallationssurging35013billion(Eskom).Desperatecitizensturnedtoprivatesolarfirms,withinstallationssurging35030 billion in corruption (Zondo Commission, 2022).

But market solutions breed inequality. Solar-powered households in Johannesburg’s suburbs enjoy uninterrupted electricity, while 14 million in townships endure darkness. “Eskom failed us, but now markets are dividing us,” says activist Nomalanga Mkhize. Trust in privatized systems deepens societal fractures.

4. The Allure of Algorithms: “The Market Doesn’t Have an Uncle”

A Swahili proverb—“Mkono mtupu haulambwi” (An empty hand isn’t licked)—captures why Kenyans prefer markets. Human networks demand reciprocity: loans come with familial obligations, jobs with tribal bias. Algorithms, meanwhile, are impersonal. M-Pesa doesn’t care if you’re Kikuyu or Luo; Uber Eats won’t inflate prices because of your surname.

This logic drives Kenya’s AI-driven credit scoring boom. Startups like Tala and Branch use non-traditional data—text messages, app usage—to approve loans in minutes, bypassing biased bank managers. But critics warn these systems entrench discrimination. A 2023 Oxford study found Nairobi’s AI lenders charge informal traders 22% higher rates than salaried workers, replicating human prejudice through data.

5. Global Parallels: From Amazon to India’s UPI

Kenya’s paradox isn’t unique. In India, 46% of SMEs trust UPI payment systems over local lenders (RBI, 2023), following a $220 billion bad loan crisis. In the U.S., gig workers flock to apps like TaskRabbit despite exploitative fees, preferring algorithmic “fairness” over unpredictable bosses.

Even humanitarian aid is marketized. During Kenya’s 2023 drought, the UN distributed blockchain-based vouchers via World Food Programme’s Building Blocks, cutting fraud but eroding community-led aid networks. “Efficiency replaced empathy,” lamented a Nairobi NGO director.

6. When Markets Fail: The Human Costs of Blind Faith

Market trust often ignores systemic risks. Kenya’s AI credit algorithms fueled a 2023 debt crisis: 14 million borrowers (37% of adults) are delinquent (CBK), lured by “instant” loans with hidden 30% APRs. Similarly, Nigeria’s crypto traders face a regulatory crackdown, with Coinbase exiting in 2023 after $1.3 billion in frozen assets.

Globally, FTX’s collapse exposed how “trustless” systems rely on trusting charismatic figures like Sam Bankman-Fried. Yet, post-collapse, crypto trading volumes rebounded 65% in three months (CoinGecko, 2023). Markets, it seems, are forgiven faster than people.

7. Rebuilding Trust: Can Humanity and Markets Coexist?

Hybrid models are emerging. Kenya’s government launched a blockchain land registry in 2023 to combat corruption but retained community elders as arbitrators. Nigeria’s SEC now mandates crypto exchanges to verify users’ identities, blending AI with oversight.

Grassroots movements also push back. South Africa’s “Solar Co-ops” let townships pool resources for renewable energy, merging market tools with communal trust. As Cape Town organizer Lindiwe Dlamini argues, “Systems should serve people, not replace them.”

The Unseen Hand Needs a Human Pulse

Markets thrive on predictability, but humanity demands nuance. Kenya’s journey—from M-Pesa’s triumph to AI loan traps—reveals a universal truth: trust in systems over people isn’t wisdom, but a survival tactic in broken societies. Repairing that trust requires markets that amplify human agency, not erase it.

As Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz noted in 2023: “A world that trusts algorithms more than neighbors is a world that’s given up on justice.” For Kenya and beyond, the challenge is clear: rebuild systems worthy of human trust, not just algorithmic obedience.

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